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Gary Jobson America’s Cup Report 16

Jobson AC Report 16

September 23, 2013

Answering the Challenge

By Gary Jobson

President Bill Clinton had a great expression when meeting people with troubles.  He always connected by saying, “I feel your pain.”   To paraphrase Mr. Clinton, “We are feeling Emirate Team New Zealand’s pain.”   The fading, near winners of the America’s Cup, just don’t seem to have an answer for the remarkable comeback by Oracle Team USA. The Kiwis have canceled victory celebrations, a charter flight to Auckland and said goodby to many fans who have patiently waited for the big win.  This could be the biggest collapse in the history of the America’s Cup. Just 5 days ago ETNZ was up 8-1, but now the score is 8-6.  The USA has won five straight, and are getting faster, and better with each race.  What can the Kiwis do?

First a quick review of the performance differences between NZL and USA 17.  At the start of Race16 today both boats were exactly 0.5 seconds behind the starting line according to the AC LiveLine data.  In 12.2 knots of wind (at least what I read on the race committee boat, Regardless) OTUSA lifted up on its foils immediately after the start. New Zealand did not lift off its foils and was rolled by USA 17 that had started to windward.  On the downwind leg, the American boat slowly stretched out. Half way down Leg 3 NZL rolled out its genneker.  The speeds were nearly identically.  Not taking any chances OTUSA rolled out its genneker.  At the leeward gate the boats split sides.  Against a 1.5 knot flood current, and sailing in spotty 11-15 knot winds, the two boats seemed even in speed.  Just last week NZL would have sailed right past USA 17.  Not anymore.

So let’s say you have to defeat a boat that is faster reaching, has a slight edge downwind, can foil earlier, and can maneuver just as well as you. What could you do to reach the finish line ahead? The first step is to win the start.  NZL skipper, Dean Barker has won several starts.  He knows he can do it.  OTUSAs, Australian skipper, James Spithill understands that Barker is really good and will try not to take risky chances.  Barker must be bold, and try something that Spithill doesn’t expect. Against a boat that appears to accelerate faster, Barker needs to start to leeward and ahead and force USA 17 away from the first mark.  On the downwind leg, Kiwi tactician Ray Davies, must look forward and keep his boat in stronger winds.  At times he should call to cover closely, while at other times he must be bold when he is sure his boat is in better wind.  These are tricky calls, but this is the moment for greatness. If NZL can round ahead at the leeward gate they must cover USA 17 and use their starboard advantage and wind shadow to force USA 17 to make extra tacks, or sail in disturbed wind.   If the USA gets behind on Leg 3, watch them make some desperate moves. Life is good when you are leading, but things can change if you get behind.  When the hard truth of defeat is on the horizon mistakes are often made.

In my long career on the match race circuit, and in a number of America’s Cup trials, I have been on a slower boat, and still found a way to win.  (I have also been on  faster boats and still lost). Every athlete is capable of mistakes including the crew of USA 17.  For NZL it starts with the belief that they can win.  Dean Barker and his crew have already won 8 races, and they have been ahead in three others that were canceled.   Bad luck for NZL, but you can’t look back.  It hasn’t been so easy for OTUSA either. They had to eat a 2 point penalty and yet have kept fighting back. Barker and his tactician, Ray Davies, have been mates since their earliest days.  There is a real trust between them. Together they can find a way to win. Right now they need a spark to break out of this slump.  I am not sure why team leader, Grant Dalton, has been off the crew roster, but he needs to get back on the boat. Dalton may have an injury, or some other issue that keeps him out of the lineup, but I think his presence makes a difference.

Completing this America’s Cup feels like waiting for astronaut John Glenn’s space launch in 1962.  Glenn was on the launch pad for weeks before his rocket, Friendship 7 was ready, and the weather conditions favorable.  Like Glenn’s experience years ago, the mental strain on those involved in this Cup is causing fatigue.  Everyone expected this to be long over. According to yachting historian, John Rousmaniere, the longest span in days for a Cup match was back in 1899.  The NYYC race committee tried to complete races starting on October 3 between Columbia and Shamrock.  The last race was completed on October 20.  That’s 18 days.  Tomorrow is the 18th day of the 34th Defense.

If NZL can win the opening race scheduled to start at 1:15 local time, the Cup is over.  If NZL loses they might pull a card that allows them to postpone the second race of the day.  But, Dean Barker said at the post race press conference that they would not. We will see.  The wind is expected to blow harder tomorrow. Luckily, we will have a flood tide of 1.6 knots for the first race, raising the 23 knot wind limit to 24.6 knots. I doubt the wind will build that high.  Calling for a time out would force the Kiwis to sail two races on Wednesday. The stakes are incredibly high.  But, when you think about it, where would you rather be than on one of the AC 72s for a race of this magnitude?

The crowds today were paltry.  I counted a maximum of 25 spectator boats on the water.  Some of the bleachers along the waterfront are being dismantled.  This is in stark contrast to the huge crowds that were watching over the past few weekends.  For most people normal life needs to continue.  The dramatic drop in attendance reminds me of 1969 when an estimated 400,000 people attended the Woodstock Music & Art Fair. The last act on the list of star studded rock bands that performed throughout a three day weekend did not get to play until Monday morning.  Jimmy Hendrix gave the performance of his career, and yet, only 25,000 were on hand to hear him.

Sometime over the next one, two or three days, either Oracle Team USA, or Emirates Team New Zealand will win the America’s Cup. Every race will be broadcast live on the NBC Sports Network starting at 4pm Eastern time (1pm Pacific). These will be epic races for the ages.  One team will feel pain, the other will be somewhere between elated and ecstatic.

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Is “The Comeback” in the America’s Cup inevitable?

 

Score now 8-6 in America’s Cup Match

Oracle Team USA has won five races in a row and seven of the last nine to trail Emirates Team New Zealand 8-6 on points, after deducting their 2 point penalty.

America's Cup Race 16 won by Oracle Team USA over Emirates Team New Zealand in San Francisco

The faster boat almost always wins the America’s Cup

Oracle Team USA has made constant modifications to their boat throughout the America’s Cup Match. They have used a separate measurement certificate for every single race – 16 certificates so far. On days with two races they have changed the rake of their rudders between races. Each night they make bigger changes. They now clearly have the faster boat.

Winning the starts is key to winning the America’s Cup

OTUSA won the start again in Race 16. The only start ETNZ has won in the last five races was in Race 13, but they lost that race after OTUSA took the lead on the first downwind leg. ETNZ needs to win the start and build a lead in order counter OTUSA’s better boatspeed.

Race 12 was the turning point in this America’s Cup

OTUSA won the start with a late hook in Race 12, forcing ETNZ onto port tack before the start. For the first time, they showed better upwind speed, foiling upwind at over 30 knots. They have now won five in a row. ETNZ has been stuck at match point since winning Race 11 on Wednesday 18 September. The momentum is clearly with OTUSA.

OTUSA still needs to win three races, ETNZ only needs one

Any breakdown, mistake or just a little bad luck for OTUSA could hand a race and the America’s Cup to the Kiwis.  Let’s enjoy the rest of the racing.

Cartoon by Mark O'Brien - www.monstacartoons.com Cartoon by Mark O’Brien – www.monstacartoons.com

 

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Light wind means longest America’s Cup getting longer

The 2013 America’s Cup in San Francisco is now the longest in history – 17 calendar days and counting. Light and variable winds are forecast for today, Monday 23 September, so it is unlikely that two races can be run, and we may not have any racing.

America's Cup regatta director Iain Murray describes the forecast for today, 23 Septmeber: light and variable wind may cause postponement. America’s Cup regatta director Iain Murray describes the forecast for today, 23 September: light and variable wind may cause postponement.

The race committee now has performance data for the boats in light air – on Friday 20 September, Race 13 was started in light wind but was abandoned when the 40 minute time limit ran out. The performance data show that a race run in under 10 knots of breeze will not finish within the time limit – one more reason to wonder if races can be started today.

 

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Gary Jobson America’s Cup Report 15

Jobson AC Report 15

September 22, 2013

Speed,Smarts and a Little Luck

By Gary Jobson

Can Emirates Team New Zealand dig into their collective inner soul and find a way to win the 34th America’s Cup?  The way it is going the Kiwis are in deep trouble.

Oracle Team USA is on a roll.  They are winning starts, sailing really smart, and at times they are blazingly fast.  The USA still needs to win four races to successfully defend, while NZL only needs one victory to take the Cup down under.  Race 16 on Monday will mark the longest period in Cup racing days since the first defense in 1870.  Several thousand fans from NZ, who are here in San Francisco, can’t believe what is happening.  Neither can the team.  Three races have been abandoned when NZL was ahead for either too much wind, or too little, hence the bad luck.  I still believe the Kiwis can pull this off.

It starts with a renewed attitude.  NZL skipper, Dean Barker, has got to ignore all the noise, expectations, thoughts of destiny, or even winning the regatta.  He needs to declare to his team that they are going to win, and do it with such determination that everyone believes him.  I watched Ted Turner do this many times.  True conviction is infectious.   The sailors and the design team need to work through every possible improvement that is available.  Any changes must be in sync with the wind, current and wave conditions.  The USA has been masterful at making innovations after going 1-3 in the first two days of the regatta. Today, in 16 knots of wind, I watched USA 17 race by my position on the race committee boat on Leg 3 at 29 knots.  The boat was up on its foils while sailing to windward.  In contrast, at that moment, NZL was sailing at 22 knots.  Does NZL have an answer?

Since Race One OTUSA seems to have a small edge sailing downwind.  If the USA has a weak spot it is sailing upwind in lighter winds.  Tomorrow the weather is forecast for light wind in the morning.  This might be the best opportunity for NZL.  If they lose the first race, and the wind starts to build, NZL might pull out a postponement card for the late day race, and hope the wind is light for the next day.  Certainly the Kiwis want to avoid a winner take all race with the score tied up.

To win, Dean Barker has to take the start.  On my unofficial score card, in 14 races Barker has won 6 starts, and OTUSA’s Australian skipper, James Spithill, has won 8.  Before today’s first race I watched Spithill and crew methodically practice several starts.  They did short timed runs, long timed runs, acceleration practice, and worked the middle, leeward and windward ends of the line.  They maximized their practice time like it was their last opportunity to hold on to the America’s Cup.  Oh, wait a minute, every race is their last opportunity to hold on to the America’s Cup.  In contrast ETNZ, went through their normal routine which is to cross the line, sail to Mark 1 and do some jibes.  But, they did not use the pre-race practice period for intense starting practice.  Maybe they should set up a starting line early in the morning and schedule some practice starts.

If the Kiwis can win the start the next problem is staying ahead on the downwind leg, knowing they might be a little slower. This is where the tactician, Ray Davies, needs to make good calls.  Most of the time the leading boat must cover, but sometimes it is better to stay in stronger wind, than make extra maneuvers.  Over on USA 17, British tactician, Ben Ainslie, has found the correct balance between covering and going for better wind.  This is where championships (or America’s Cups) are won.

ETNZ has plenty of strengths.  Dean Barker is doing a really good job steering.  The crew continues to handle their boat with precision on every maneuver.  But for Mr. Davies?  This is his hour.  My advice is to simply go out and have some fun.  Treat the next race just like you would in any weekend regatta.  If you get caught up thinking about the high stakes of this event, you are cooked.  Going with your gut instinct always seems to work.

A few days before the first race of the 1977 America’s Cup I will never forget Ted Turner telling me, “I am going to have fun in this regatta, because I think it will improve our chances of winning.”

Oracle Team USA’s owner, Larry Ellison, has a lot on his plate at the moment.  About 60,000 people are here in San Francisco for Oracle Open World, a huge technology conference.  This is an important event for his company.  Yet, he is on the water for every race.  Mr. Ellison stopped by our race committee boat yesterday for a brief hello and seemed very energized by his sailing team’s turn around.  My only regret for him in this Cup is that Ellison should have been able to sail on his boat.  Whatever format evolves for the next America’s Cup I hope the owners can be aboard.  Surely, this would be a good incentive for captains of industry to organize sailing teams.

The number of spectator boats on the water is getting smaller by the day.  I have never seen so few boats watching an America’s Cup.  I spoke at a local yacht club here on Friday night.  I asked why more boats were not out on the bay.  Several people at my table said, “Its better watching on television.”  Lucky me, I get to do both.  Being aboard the race committee boat with our television crew, cameraman Greg Peterson and engineer Bruce Jackson, has been great fun. We have the television images, AC LiveLine graphic information, and get to see the boats up close.  At times they sail past within one boat length.

Racing on San Francisco certainly provides good theater for spectators all along the shore line.  But I would like to add an editorial comment.  The restrictions of where the course can be set makes it a difficult challenge for the race committee.  Yesterday we were unable to get a race off because the wind was left of 230 degrees.  If a race had been sailed the boats would have reached to each mark.  A parade would be unfair to the competitors. The race committee will not start a race if the wind is to the right of 280 degrees.   To make the short 40 minute time limit the wind needs to average at least 8 knots.  But, we can not race in winds over 23 knots for safety reasons.  These are severely limiting parameters.  If the races are to be held on San Francisco Bay in the future, a little more flexibility is order.

As I mentioned in an earlier AC Report I like cheering for one team at sporting events.  Right now I want both teams to win.  It would be heart warming to watch Dean Barker and his Kiwi crew break out of their slump and win it.  It means a lot to that tiny nation.  At the same time I am really enjoying watching James Spithill and his team come charging back after near certain defeat.  While commentating on the races for television I always have my tactician’s mind engaged.  Ben Ainslie is great fun to watch.  He is like a chess master.  Ainslie gets a helpful mental boost from the observations of OTUSA’s strategist, Tom Slinsby.  Every sailor should listen carefully to the communication between these two Olympic champions.

I guess a tie is out of the question.  One team must win nine races.  It could happen tomorrow, or it could come down to one race with the score tied at 8-8.  Either way the conclusion is going to be fascinating.   Tell your friends to tune in and watch sailing history being made.  We may never see anything like this again.

At 4pm Eastern time (1 pm Pacific) Todd Harris, Ken Read and I, along with our very energized production team look forward to bringing you the finale of the 34th America’s Cup defense.