Cup Experience

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Understanding the Arithmetic Going into Fukuoka

In spite of breathless reports which explain that the winner of a race on Sunday scores 20 points, it won’t be so easy for any of the teams to move up the leaderboard. Consider this: If the weather cooperates and all races are sailed, the most one team can improve over another is 45 points. And this would mean one team wins every race, scoring a total of 90 points for the regatta, while the other team comes in last in every race, scoring 45. I give a full explanation of the standings here. Short version: Land Rover BAR is in a strong position to win the series and take the two bonus points. Oracle and Team New Zealand will be battling for second place and the remaining bonus point.

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Modified Round Robin America’s Cup Qualifiers Schedule

Does Land Rover BAR have the easiest schedule?

On 18 October 2016 ACEA published a modified schedule for the double round robin America’s Cup Qualifiers. Instead of 10 days of racing with each team racing once per day, the AC Qualifiers have been reduced to eight days with at least one team having to race twice on every day. This is a big deal.

Here is the original schedule:

Original America's Cup 2017 Race Calendar
Original America’s Cup 2017 Race Calendar

Here is the new calendar. You can download it here.

America's Cup 2017 Race Calendar
America’s Cup 2017 Race Calendar

The big advantage of the new schedule is having a guaranteed layday between the Challenger Playoff semi-finals and finals.

Stamina and Limited Substitutions
Much has been made of the physical demands on the grinders. Only two crew substitutions can be made between races, so when a fresh team comes up against a team that has already raced once, the fresh team will have a big advantage.

And, what if something breaks during your first race? Even if you have time to make the repair, your preparation for the second race will be thrown off.

A Closer Look at the Schedule

Does Land Rover BAR have the easiest schedule?
Do Oracle Team USA and SoftBank Team Japan have schedules almost as good?
Do the Kiwis have a good schedule?
Do Artemis Racing and Groupama Team France have the worst schedules?

All of the teams have a day off on Thursday 1 June, after six days of racing. Five of the six teams get another layday, all except Emirates Team New Zealand. In return, the Kiwis only have two days when they race twice. Each of the other teams has two races on three days. Let’s look at the schedules, team by team.
Land Rover BAR seems to have the best schedule: they have to race twice on three days, but each time they will be racing against another team who has already raced earlier in the day. BAR also has two laydays in a row – Thursday 1 June, when all the teams are off and Friday 2 June. This will let them regain some strength for the last day of the round robin when they face Team Japan, and, in the very last race of the round robin, Oracle.
Oracle Team USA has it almost as good: each time they race twice in a day they too race against another team that has already raced earlier in the day. But… they have to race twice on two successive days, Day 2 against Land Rover BAR and Day 3 against SoftBank Team Japan.
SoftBank Team Japan only has to race a fresh team once. On Day 6 their second race is against Oracle Team USA, but Team Japan has a layday on Day 5 so they should be rested for Day 6.
Artemis Racing faces fresh teams on two of their three two-race days. Interestingly they will face BAR twice when BAR is fresh but Artemis has already raced earlier in the day. Like BAR, they get two days in a row off – May 31st and June 1st – before the last two days of the round robin.
Groupama Team France may have the toughest schedule. They race twice on three days, twice against teams that are fresh. The one time their second race of the day is against another team that has raced it’s against BAR.
Emirates Team New Zealand is the only team that races twice on only two days – both times against fresh teams: BAR on Day 3 and Team France on Day 7, the day after the layday for all teams. This seems like it should be a good schedule, but they are the only team that does not get a day off on one of the race days.

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Avoiding a Capsize – Groupama Team France Video

This Team France video shows them training in Lorient, France with their AC45x test boat. I don’t think they were in real danger of capsizing, but the gybe at 40 seconds into the video did not go right! Of course, we’ve seen footage of all the teams splashing down as they work to master their manoeuvres. Click the photo to watch the video.

At about 40 seconds into the video they start a gybe but the boat starts to heel too much. They make a quick recovery and the boat splashes down off its foils.

Notice the camber in the wing and the angle of the horizon.

All the camber is released and the horizon is at a less scary angle.

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Moving to Fukuoka

The final stop for the AC World Series is Fukuoka, Japan. Fifty containers are on their way from Toulon.

Image: ACEA Video

Racing is scheduled for 19-20 November. From the leaderboard below, you can see that Land Rover BAR’s 14 point lead will make them hard to catch. Winning the AC World Series would give them two bonus points in next year’s round robin America’s Cup Qualifiers. Oracle Team USA and Emirates Team New Zealand will be fighting for the bonus point that goes to the runner up. Oracle has yet to win a World Series regatta; this is their last chance. SoftBank Team Japan and Artemis Racing will be battling for fourth place. Since the AC World Series results will be used to break ties in the Qualifiers, every place counts, and these teams will be fighting hard. Groupama Team France looks unlikely to escape the cellar – they will have to count on a good performance in the Qualifiers to avoid elimination.

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About Those Bonus Points

There are still lots of questions about the bonus points… The winner of the America’s Cup World Series carries two bonus points into the round robin match racing “Qualifiers,” which begin 26 May in Bermuda. The runner up gets one bonus point. With six teams (remember that defender Oracle Team USA races in the Qualifiers), in this double round robin, a perfect score would be 10 points. The winner of the Qualifiers will start the America’s Cup Match with a one point lead. If Oracle wins the Qualifiers their opponent in the Match starts with a score of minus one (-1). If a challenger wins the Qualifiers and they make it through the “Challenger Playoffs to the Match, Oracle starts at minus one.

So, those bonus points could be very valuable. Remember, too, that the final AC World Series ranking will be used to break ties at the end of the Qualifiers. If two challengers are tied for fourth, the AC World Series results will determine which challenger is eliminated and which one goes on to the semi-finals of the challenger selection.

Series Leaderboard

Going into the final regatta in Fukuoka, Japan in November, Land Rover BAR has a comfortable lead to grab the two bonus points. Oracle Team USA and Emirates Team New Zealand will be battling for the final bonus point.

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